Two Minute Drill — Monday, November 2, 2026
The daily drive from Monday, November 2, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Ravens — can you finish the comeback?
Ravens ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 32, 2:03 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Patriots 28. Patriots won 28-24 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 32, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.1% for Ravens. Our model starts at 25.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 26-R.Ali to BAL 27 for -5 yards (7-C.Davis). NE-7-C.Davis was injured during the play.
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 32 for 5 yards (44-K.Chaisson). FUMBLES (44-K.Chaisson), RECOVERED by NE-25-M.Jones at BAL 36.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Deep post | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -1.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -2.13 pts |
| End-around | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
| Inside run | -2.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.