Two Minute Drill — Sunday, November 1, 2026
The daily drive from Sunday, November 1, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Bears — can you finish the comeback?
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:56 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Packers 16. Tied 16-16 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet to 50 for 3 yards (56-E.Cooper).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland to GB 40 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 7-Q.Walker).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 4-D.Swift to GB 32 for 8 yards (21-N.Hobbs; 7-Q.Walker).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 2-D.Moore to GB 12 for 20 yards (24-C.Valentine) [91-W.Brinson].
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 84-C.Loveland ran ob at GB 6 for 6 yards.
- (:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 14-O.Zaccheaus.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland [52-R.Gary].
- (:28) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 20-J.Walker for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-1.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.55 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.26 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
| End-around | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.