Two Minute Drill — Thursday, October 29, 2026
The daily drive from Thursday, October 29, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Patriots — can you finish the comeback?
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 2:11 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Patriots 14, Steelers 21. Steelers won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 2:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 8.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-K.Boutte ran ob at NE 34 for 8 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to NE 40 for 6 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to NE 48 for 8 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 41-P.Wilson).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 37 for 15 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 40 for -3 yards (90-T.Watt).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 3-D.Douglas.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to PIT 28 for 12 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to PIT 29 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.67 pts |
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.15 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.01 pts |
| Quick out | -0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.91 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -0.92 pts |
| End-around | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.