Two Minute Drill — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
The daily drive from Wednesday, October 28, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Eagles — can you finish the comeback?
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:32 on the clock.
24 calls · real NFL endgames · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Commanders 24. Commanders won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 2:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.9% for Eagles. Our model starts at 11.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 28-W.Shipley ran ob at PHI 47 for 12 yards (4-F.Luvu).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short right to 28-W.Shipley to PHI 46 for -1 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short right.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 2-J.Dotson ran ob at WAS 38 for 16 yards.
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right [94-D.Payne].
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass short left to 83-K.Granson to WAS 31 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Inside run (-1.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| Deep post | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.44 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Outside run | -1.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.22 pts |
| End-around | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.