Two Minute Drill — Monday, October 26, 2026

What really happened

Final: Cowboys 31, Ravens 34. Ravens won 34-31 — the drive scored.

Cowboys ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 1:30 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at DAL 48 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
2. (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 3-G.Pickens.
3. (1:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 38 for 14 yards (24-M.Starks).
4. (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy pushed ob at BAL 29 for 9 yards (29-C.Rivers) [91-T.Hendrickson].
5. (1:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 22 for 7 yards (24-M.Starks).
6. (:23) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens (2-N.Wiggins).
7. (:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to BAL 5 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith). DAL-78-T.Steele was injured during the play.
8. (:14) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 3-G.Pickens.
9. (:10) 17-B.Aubrey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.