Two Minute Drill — Wednesday, October 21, 2026
The daily drive from Wednesday, October 21, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Seahawks — can you finish the comeback?
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 1:51 on the clock.
24 calls · every snap plays out a real NFL play · graded by win probability · free, no account
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 29, 49ers 32. 49ers won 32-29 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 25.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to 50 for 35 yards (53-J.Dugger).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba (0-R.Green).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 88-A.Barner [54-F.Warner].
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.34 pts |
| Deep post | +0.28 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.01 pts |
| Play action | -0.23 pts |
| QB keep | -0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.79 pts |
| Outside run | -1.83 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.90 pts |
| Spike it | -2.32 pts |
| Inside run | -2.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.54 pts |
| End-around | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.