Two Minute Drill — Sunday, October 18, 2026
The daily drive from Sunday, October 18, 2026. This really happened — the situation below is the exact endgame those teams faced. Call it yourself and see if you beat the result. Skip to what really happened ↓
Call it for the Chiefs — can you finish the comeback?
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 1:45 on the clock.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 13, Broncos 20. Broncos won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chiefs ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 8.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Barron; 97-M.Roach).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 44 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton; 97-M.Roach).
- (1:17) 29-K.Hunt left end to DEN 42 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron; 9-T.Hufanga). DEN-9-T.Hufanga was injured during the play.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 28 for 14 yards (23-J.Barron).
- (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun scrambles left tackle to DEN 21 for 7 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
- (:26) (No Huddle) 19-C.Oladokun spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep left to 87-T.Kelce [99-Z.Allen].
- (:20) (Shotgun) 19-C.Oladokun pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Spike it (-0.94 pts), and the weakest was Deep shot (-2.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Spike it | -0.94 pts |
| Quick pass | -1.35 pts |
| RPO | -1.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.73 pts |
| Run inside | -1.80 pts |
| Intermediate pass | -1.88 pts |
| Run outside | -1.91 pts |
| Play action | -2.03 pts |
| Deep shot | -2.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.